NASA updates its percentage risk of asteroid hitting Earth
Space rock 2024 YR4 now has a 1.5 per cent chance of colliding with Earth
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NASA has reduced the likelihood of Earth being hit by a huge asteroid from the highest-ever impact probability for an object of its size.
NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies, or CNEOS, says space rock 2024 YR4, estimated to be 130 to 300 feet wide (40 to 100 metres), now has a 1.5 per cent chance of colliding with Earth in December 2032.
“New observations of asteroid 2024 YR4 helped us update its chance of impact in 2032,” the agency said in an update on Thursday.
“Our understanding of the asteroid's path improves with every observation. We'll keep you posted.”
On Tuesday, NASA had the impact probability at 3.1 per cent, the highest ever recorded for an object of its size, but the probability was as low as 1 per cent at the end of January.
While the asteroid is unlikely to make contact, it is too soon to know where it might land if it did hit Earth in six years time.
The UK is not within the current predicted “impact risk corridor”, which is the area where the asteroid could land, according to the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN).
However, more than 100 million people do live in places that could potentially be hit by 2024 YR4.
This corridor stretches across the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia, the IAWN said.
If the asteroid hits it could cause “severe blast damage” as far as 50 km (31 miles) from the impact site, scientists say.
Experts expect the probability of collision will change as more observations are made.
There is a 0.8 per cent chance the asteroid will impact the moon, NASA said.
The asteroid was first spotted in December by a telescope in Chile.