Has the Ukraine crisis given Starmer a popularity boost?

Sir Keir Starmer is hardly the first leader in history to find themselves unpopular at home while highly regarded abroad; Tony Blair springs to mind. Indeed, some prime ministers have enjoyed escaping their domestic travails by attending international summits, scoring an invite to the White House or the Elysee, visiting Kyiv under bombardment, or sponsoring a doomed peace initiative in the Middle East.

The luckier ones manage to leverage their successes and stature abroad to burnish their image as a statesman/stateswoman, of which Margaret Thatcher was probably the most successful. It adds to the aura of leadership and who doesn’t want someone respected in the world to head their country? So early in his premiership, could Sir Keir Starmer be about to turn prospective overseas triumphs into a home win?

It’s hard to be scientific so soon after recent events but clearly he has enjoyed a good couple of weeks, with a glowing press even among those titles most unremittingly hostile to his domestic agenda. Next to Benjamin Netanyahu, he has enjoyed the happiest time in the White House, for example. The “optics” during his visit to Trump were excellent, the gift of a letter from the King inviting Trump to a “historic” second state visit being especially well choreographed. Starmer also confounded his critics by winning Trump’s approval for the Chagos Island treaty, tariffs and even the whiff of a UK-US trade deal, the holy grail for Brexiteers. And of course Starmer’s high-profile role in seeking peace in Ukraine has won further panegyrics.

By default, it is looking that way. Mr Trump has, arguably, abdicated the traditional US role in favour of a partnership with Russia and rivals are all compromised. Emmanuel Macron is even more deeply unpopular at home than Starmer and, after a botched election, cannot appoint a stable government. Trudeau is on his way out. Germany is in transition and, for historical reasons, remains nervous about throwing its weight anywhere adjacent to Russia. Georgia Meloni is ideologically close to Trump but viewed with a little unease in the EU for that very reason. And Ursula von der Leyen only runs a large but fractious economic club with no army. And so the task falls to Starmer, not unlike the way he became leader of his party, almost by accident.

Yes, very likely. But the thing to always remember about Starmer’s personal ratings – as opposed to those of his party – is that they’ve never been that high, and have been flattered by the fact that his Tory opponents have an even more dismal showing, the extreme example of that being Liz Truss. So, at the moment, on the last YouGov poll only 19 per cent of respondents rated him as the best prime minister, marginally behind the resurgent Nigel Farage, on 20 per cent. But Starmer is still way ahead of Kemi Badenoch, rated best by just 9 per cent, just ahead of Ed Davey on 8 per cent. Some 44 per cent said they didn’t know.

Foreign affairs don’t figure much in British general elections, nor opinion polling. Britain is hardly a global power nowadays, and the economy, public services and immigration are bigger concerns. However, the drumbeat of war in Europe and the relative nearness of Ukraine has raised its profile and its plight has moved people. Volodymyr Zelensky is wildly popular – two-thirds of people hold a favourable view – while Putin is reviled (89 per cent unfavourable), and Trump isn’t far behind the Russian – 73 per cent negative. Being hugged by Zelensky, being hostile to Putin and trying to be a “bridge” to Trump and peace is optimal positioning for Starmer. It will certainly dispel some of the public disquiet about how much time the PM spends abroad.

No, but how much it helps depends. If he is successful and seen to be so as the new leader of the free world, then he’ll be given some credit for that, and it will add to his “serious guy” image, placing him in a different league to Farage, Badenoch or Davey. On the other hand, the Starmer peace plan could all go horribly wrong. But of course NHS waiting lists and income tax will always count for more.